Intelligence Is All About Predictions
Intelligence is the ability to acquire and apply information. To acquire information means to incorporate it, or contextualise it, into a cognitive model. To apply information means to use a cognitive model to make predictions.
The role of cognition, indeed the reason for which it evolved in humans and to varying extents in other animals, is to guide behavior in such a way as to maximize the prospect of survival and reproduction. At its essence, cognition simply involves the processing of sensory data from the environment to make predictions and to implement effective behaviors.
Some might claim that this view of intelligence is too simplistic. A popular theory is that of multiple intelligence, put forward by Howard Gardner in his book Frames of Mind (1983), which holds that what we call human intelligence is not a single phenomenon, but rather a number of independent cognitive modalities: logical-mathematical, verbal-linguistic, musical-rhythmic, body-kinesthetic, interpersonal, intrapersonal and naturalistic. However, while I agree that there are indeed many types of intelligence, all of them ultimately involve the processing of information in the service of making predictions to guide behaviours of one sort or another. For example, an expert orator can effortlessly predict the subtle meaning his improvised words will convey. A trained guitarist can predict the sounds that will be made by his instrument based on subtle variations in the movements of his fingers. An expert acrobat can predict with uncanny accuracy how the movements of her body will carry her through space.
What makes it possible for intelligence to exist, in whatever form, is the presence of a predictive model. Virtuosity at any cognitive task is reached by the development, through practice or repetition, of a highly effective, i.e. predictive, behavioural model. Even the ability to solve novel problems is a cognitive skill which is developed by repetitively solving other novel problems. We learn to solve novel problems, within a domain or field, by learning to recognise and incorporate the most relevant, or predictive, available information into a predictive model.
Models are key to intelligence because they make it possible for us to make sense of the world that we observe. In order to interact with the world, we need to anticipate it. We need to place our observations into context, recognize patterns and extend them into the future. We need predictive models to run alternative scenarios in order to select those behaviours that we expect will lead to the outcomes we hope to achieve.
A prediction need not always concern the future. For example, the investigation of a crime involves creating a model using known information to determine unknown information. It is just like making a prediction even though it concerns events which temporally are in the past. The true essence of intelligence is to decrease our uncertainty about the unknown by applying models developed from the known. The future is the most common source of uncertainty, but an obfuscated past is an equally valid target for making predictions.